Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 775 Southwest	AUS 15:09	ECP 17:12	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 3767 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 12:43	ECP 15:02	11%	7%	0.6%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 12:09 → ATL 15:35DL 2886	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → ECP 19:20DL 3053	7h 11m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	5h 39m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	5h 23m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	5h 37m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	AUS 16:34 → HOU 17:33WN 310	1h 16m Houston	HOU 18:49 → ECP 20:40WN 4852	4h 06m	100%	87%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:46 → ECP 11:52AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	6h 51m	99%	87%
American Details →	AUS 15:15 → DFW 16:38AA 2198	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:41 → ECP 21:59AA 3628 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	95%	86%
American Details →	AUS 06:07 → CLT 09:58AA 1032	50m Charlotte	CLT 10:48 → ECP 11:31AA 5262 · flown by PSA	5h 24m	93%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 17:01 → DFW 18:51AA 1658	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:41 → ECP 21:59AA 3628 · flown by Envoy	4h 58m	65%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON