Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2315 AUS 09:27 → IND 12:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1496 AUS 18:59 → IND 22:28 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2315 Southwest	AUS 09:27	IND 12:59	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 4101 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:10	IND 10:54	6%	3%	0.5%	87%
WN 4527 Southwest	AUS 13:46	IND 17:17	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 3731 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 19:15	IND 22:58	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 1496 Southwest	AUS 18:59	IND 22:28	12%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON