tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 107 SkyWest AUS 10:09 JAX 13:49 9% 6% 1.3% no record
WN 2182 Southwest AUS 12:19 JAX 15:47 11% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024 7h 20m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 13:57 → JAX 15:09DL 2990 5h 54m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923 4h 35m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:00 → DTW 11:58DL 559 3h 04m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 8h 27m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → JAX 16:35DL 2720 5h 00m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → AUS 12:09 → ATL 15:35DL 2886 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 18:13 → JAX 19:30DL 2315 6h 21m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:50 → JAX 11:27AA 1061 5h 26m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:31 → ATL 17:00DL 2011 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → JAX 21:39DL 2189 7h 08m 99% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 50m Houston IAH 20:00 → JAX 23:20UA 2293 4h 16m 74% 62%
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 50m Houston IAH 18:15 → JAX 21:41UA 4035 · flown by Mesa 4h 31m 64% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON