Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 322 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 2–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 322 AUS 05:54 → LAS 06:56 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3645 AUS 15:30 → LAS 16:39 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 322 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 05:54	LAS 06:56	2%	1%	0.5%	92%
WN 344 Southwest	AUS 05:59	LAS 06:55	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 323 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 08:25	LAS 09:27	6%	1%	0.4%	66%
WN 324 Southwest	AUS 12:26	LAS 13:27	12%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 329 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:09	LAS 16:10	14%	4%	0.4%	45%
WN 234 Southwest	AUS 17:57	LAS 18:57	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 2260 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:29	LAS 16:20	15%	5%	0.6%	72%
F9 3645 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 15:30	LAS 16:39	18%	8%	0.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON