tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Midland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:29 → MAF 09:52AA 3643 · flown by Envoy 4h 51m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 3h 07m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 3h 02m Houston IAH 09:35 → MAF 11:07UA 6186 · flown by Mesa 5h 37m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → AUS 10:40 → DFW 12:03AA 794 3h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:28 → MAF 16:51AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 6h 11m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → AUS 17:01 → DFW 18:51AA 1658 1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:35 → MAF 21:53AA 3541 · flown by Envoy 4h 52m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → AUS 15:15 → DFW 16:38AA 2198 3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → MAF 21:40AA 4172 · flown by Envoy 6h 25m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → MAF 13:34UA 6338 · flown by Mesa 6h 24m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa 6h 40m 100% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON