Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 406 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 406 AUS 05:02 → MIA 08:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 3012 AUS 13:17 → MIA 16:59 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 406 American Flight history →	AUS 05:02	MIA 08:58	6%	2%	0.9%	91%
DL 2507 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:35	MIA 12:35	7%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 812 American Flight history →	AUS 12:54	MIA 16:58	22%	6%	1.2%	80%
WN 3012 Southwest	AUS 13:17	MIA 16:59	23%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON