Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 4344 Southwest	AUS 10:17	OAK 11:59	5%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 06:00 → LAS 06:57WN 322	2h 26m Las Vegas	LAS 09:23 → OAK 10:55WN 1932	6h 55m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581	1h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	95%	91%
Southwest Details →	AUS 08:31 → LAS 09:28WN 323	2h 03m Las Vegas	LAS 11:31 → OAK 13:04WN 2222	6h 33m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	6h 01m	95%	88%
Southwest Details →	AUS 15:15 → LAS 16:11WN 329	3h 37m Las Vegas	LAS 19:48 → OAK 21:20WN 2225	8h 05m	99%	87%
Alaska Details →	AUS 16:17 → SEA 18:47AS 503	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 20:42 → OAK 22:45AS 706	8h 28m	95%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON