Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2421 at 10:54, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2421 Southwest	AUS 10:54	ONT 12:02	5%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 06:00 → LAS 06:57WN 322	57m Las Vegas	LAS 07:54 → ONT 09:01WN 4725	5h 01m	97%	93%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:16 → ONT 12:16DL 1173	6h 01m	96%	90%
United Details →	AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595	1h 36m Denver	DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430	6h 17m	99%	89%
American Details →	AUS 07:00 → DFW 08:28AA 2196	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635	8h 32m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	AUS 08:31 → LAS 09:28WN 323	2h 11m Las Vegas	LAS 11:39 → ONT 12:46WN 955	6h 15m	100%	88%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:22 → ONT 09:43AA 1820	6h 42m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581	1h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	6h 23m	96%	87%
American Details →	AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:42 → ONT 12:01AA 2956	8h 01m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON