Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4779 AUS 12:07 → PHL 17:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1519 AUS 14:12 → PHL 19:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4779 Republic	AUS 12:07	PHL 17:08	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2774 American Flight history →	AUS 07:30	PHL 12:05	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1519 American	AUS 14:12	PHL 19:10	13%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	AUS 15:00 → ATL 18:25DL 2104	50m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	5h 20m	87%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON