Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 334 AUS 07:37 → PHX 08:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 397 AUS 18:51 → PHX 19:21 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 334 Southwest	AUS 07:37	PHX 08:07	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4798 Southwest	AUS 12:04	PHX 12:34	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3535 SkyWest	AUS 08:01	PHX 08:41	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 467 Southwest	AUS 14:51	PHX 15:21	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 455 American Flight history →	AUS 08:24	PHX 09:03	10%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 2042 American Flight history →	AUS 12:04	PHX 12:28	12%	5%	0.6%	83%
AA 1059 American	AUS 14:27	PHX 15:07	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 397 Southwest	AUS 18:51	PHX 19:21	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON