Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2526 at 17:44, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2526 Southwest	AUS 17:44	PIT 21:44	12%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic	7h 43m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353	6h 35m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:00 → DTW 11:58DL 559	2h 35m Detroit	DTW 14:33 → PIT 15:44DL 4640 · flown by Endeavor	6h 44m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	5h 27m	98%	92%
American Details →	AUS 06:01 → ORD 09:00AA 1064	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 10:19 → PIT 13:03AA 4467 · flown by Republic	6h 02m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	AUS 16:31 → DTW 20:35DL 2736	2h 11m Detroit	DTW 22:46 → PIT 23:57DL 5369 · flown by Endeavor	6h 26m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351	6h 55m	99%	91%
United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	3h 07m Denver	DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308	8h 37m	99%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON