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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 95% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 06:00 → LAS 06:57WN 322 1h 23m Las Vegas LAS 08:20 → RNO 09:43WN 205 5h 43m 99% 95%
DeltaDetails → AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671 2h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 6h 32m 98% 92%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 15:15 → LAS 16:11WN 329 3h 55m Las Vegas LAS 20:06 → RNO 21:31WN 3605 8h 16m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 08:31 → LAS 09:28WN 323 2h 26m Las Vegas LAS 11:54 → RNO 13:17WN 4189 6h 46m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 5h 54m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607 6h 22m 96% 89%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 31m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 6h 09m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → AUS 11:26 → DEN 12:45UA 779 3h 25m Denver DEN 16:10 → RNO 17:36UA 1604 8h 10m 100% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON