Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3293 AUS 06:00 → SAN 07:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 4057 AUS 20:08 → SAN 21:07 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3293 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 06:00	SAN 07:08	7%	3%	0.8%	89%
AS 3301 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 19:59	SAN 21:13	10%	3%	0.9%	84%
OO 3464 SkyWest	AUS 13:55	SAN 15:09	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 507 Southwest	AUS 15:53	SAN 16:53	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 534 Southwest	AUS 14:22	SAN 15:22	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4057 Southwest	AUS 20:08	SAN 21:07	15%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON