Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 780 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 780 AUS 06:00 → SEA 08:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 416 AUS 08:31 → SEA 10:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 780 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:00	SEA 08:23	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1684 Delta Flight history →	AUS 11:14	SEA 13:45	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
AS 503 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 16:17	SEA 18:47	16%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 831 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:14	SEA 20:46	16%	4%	0.6%	76%
AS 339 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 19:07	SEA 21:35	17%	3%	0.6%	74%
WN 3544 Southwest	AUS 16:19	SEA 18:21	19%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 416 Alaska	AUS 08:31	SEA 10:40	19%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON