Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2177 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2177 AUS 05:56 → SFO 07:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 292 AUS 20:01 → SFO 21:50 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2177 United Flight history →	AUS 05:56	SFO 07:40	3%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 381 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:10	SFO 08:47	5%	3%	0.7%	72%
UA 1336 United Flight history →	AUS 13:31	SFO 15:33	11%	5%	0.6%	67%
UA 1668 United Flight history →	AUS 08:40	SFO 10:25	11%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 2774 Southwest	AUS 12:14	SFO 13:46	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1077 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:21	SFO 17:04	13%	5%	0.6%	50%
WN 184 Southwest	AUS 17:04	SFO 18:34	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 442 United Flight history →	AUS 15:35	SFO 17:24	16%	4%	0.6%	65%
UA 1204 United	AUS 20:48	SFO 22:37	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 292 United Flight history →	AUS 20:01	SFO 21:50	19%	4%	0.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON