tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via LAX, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1132 Southwest AUS 08:03 SJC 09:56 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 510 Southwest AUS 18:31 SJC 20:22 13% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 05:54 → LAS 06:56WN 322 2h 39m Las Vegas LAS 09:35 → SJC 11:12WN 1682 7h 18m 100% 95%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 08:25 → LAS 09:27WN 323 3h 09m Las Vegas LAS 12:36 → SJC 14:13WN 372 7h 48m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 15:09 → LAS 16:10WN 329 3h 43m Las Vegas LAS 19:53 → SJC 21:31WN 2294 8h 22m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:04 → SJC 10:56AA 2046 7h 55m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:49 → MSP 08:25DL 1242 1h 40m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 12m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 56m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 05m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946 3h 29m Los Angeles LAX 18:17 → SJC 19:32DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest 7h 52m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:31 → ATL 17:00DL 2011 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → SJC 21:31DL 933 10h 00m 98% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON