Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 921 at 16:11, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 921 Southwest	AUS 16:11	SMF 17:49	11%	3%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 06:00 → LAS 06:57WN 322	2h 09m Las Vegas	LAS 09:06 → SMF 10:38WN 2305	6h 38m	100%	93%
United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	1h 02m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149	5h 56m	98%	93%
United Details →	AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595	1h 59m Denver	DEN 11:48 → SMF 13:28UA 2673	6h 58m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 59m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 01m	97%	90%
American Details →	AUS 06:01 → ORD 09:00AA 1064	2h 49m Chicago	ORD 11:49 → SMF 14:34AA 1906	10h 33m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	AUS 08:31 → LAS 09:28WN 323	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 10:43 → SMF 12:15WN 819	5h 44m	98%	90%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:17 → SMF 10:26AA 2081	7h 25m	98%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON