tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2216 at 17:10, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2216 Southwest AUS 17:10 SNA 18:17 16% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AUS 06:00 → LAS 06:57WN 322 1h 16m Las Vegas LAS 08:13 → SNA 09:20WN 3368 5h 20m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:31 → SFO 15:33UA 1336 3h 37m San Francisco SFO 19:10 → SNA 20:55UA 589 9h 24m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → AUS 15:15 → LAS 16:11WN 329 3h 25m Las Vegas LAS 19:36 → SNA 20:42WN 1263 7h 27m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 2h 57m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 29m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:21 → SNA 09:45AA 2114 6h 44m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 3h 36m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 8h 27m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → AUS 15:00 → ATL 18:25DL 2104 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 25m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:43 → SNA 11:03AA 1939 7h 03m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON