tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 998 Southwest AUS 07:26 STL 09:39 3% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 1772 Southwest AUS 15:54 STL 18:03 13% 2% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:20 → DTW 09:21DL 1040 3h 07m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 7h 45m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 7h 07m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 52m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 45m Houston IAH 11:58 → STL 14:20UA 2042 7h 10m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 1h 27m Houston IAH 08:00 → STL 10:07UA 6214 · flown by Mesa 4h 37m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:07 → CLT 09:58AA 1032 2h 00m Charlotte CLT 11:58 → STL 12:54AA 3096 6h 47m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 37m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 7h 03m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 6h 58m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 1h 03m Houston IAH 18:28 → STL 20:40UA 4573 · flown by GoJet 4h 30m 73% 51%
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:01 → ORD 15:57UA 456 48m Chicago ORD 16:45 → STL 18:13UA 4518 · flown by GoJet 5h 12m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON