Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, G4 216 at 07:28, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


G4 216 Allegiant	AVL 07:28	BOS 09:47	5%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	7h 10m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 12:21 → BOS 14:56DL 1293	7h 03m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821	7h 01m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:37 → ATL 13:45DL 3077	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → BOS 19:30DL 518	6h 53m	99%	85%
American Details →	AVL 11:35 → ORD 12:39AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	3h 13m Chicago	ORD 15:52 → BOS 19:41AA 1162	8h 06m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	AVL 11:53 → LGA 13:50DL 5025 · flown by Endeavor	2h 10m New York	LGA 16:00 → BOS 17:37DL 5819 · flown by Republic	5h 44m	96%	82%
United Details →	AVL 10:47 → ORD 11:51UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 16m Chicago	ORD 14:07 → BOS 17:46UA 1928	6h 59m	97%	81%
American Details →	AVL 11:59 → DCA 13:37AA 5213 · flown by PSA	3h 23m Washington	DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:47AA 3207	6h 48m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON