Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: AA 5213 at 11:59 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day


AA 5213 American flown by PSA Flight history →	AVL 11:59	DCA 13:37	23%	6%	2.1%	79%
AA 5052 American flown by PSA Flight history →	AVL 19:51	DCA 21:25	36%	9%	2.1%	52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 52m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	AVL 11:53 → LGA 13:50DL 5025 · flown by Endeavor	3h 25m New York	LGA 17:15 → DCA 18:59DL 5717 · flown by Republic	7h 06m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	4h 54m	93%	83%
United Details →	AVL 10:47 → ORD 11:51UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 09m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314	6h 25m	97%	83%
American Details →	AVL 11:35 → ORD 12:39AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	2h 16m Chicago	ORD 14:55 → DCA 18:00AA 2769	6h 25m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:37 → ATL 13:45DL 3077	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	6h 00m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	6h 48m	99%	79%
American Details →	AVL 16:07 → LGA 18:14AA 4418 · flown by Republic	1h 37m New York	LGA 19:51 → DCA 21:20AA 4473 · flown by Republic	5h 13m	94%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	AVL 11:53 → LGA 13:50DL 5025 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	LGA 14:40 → DCA 16:19DL 5709 · flown by Republic	4h 26m	75%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON