Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:53, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 440 United	AVL 15:35	DEN 17:19	11%	5%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 30m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	8h 07m	98%	88%
United Details →	AVL 10:47 → ORD 11:51UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	7h 44m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:37 → ATL 13:45DL 3077	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	7h 19m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	AVL 15:39 → ATL 16:48DL 3099	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	7h 04m	97%	86%
American Details →	AVL 11:35 → ORD 12:39AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 15:12 → DEN 17:07AA 1317	7h 32m	99%	81%
American Details →	AVL 13:35 → CLT 14:29AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 17:37 → DEN 19:19AA 3156	7h 44m	97%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON