Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, G7 4178 at 17:55, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


G7 4178 GoJet	AVL 17:55	EWR 20:07	24%	8%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 46m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 23m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	6h 55m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:37 → ATL 13:45DL 3077	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340	5h 16m	96%	77%
United Details →	AVL 10:47 → ORD 11:51UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 15:19 → EWR 18:32UA 1236	7h 45m	99%	76%
American Details →	AVL 13:35 → CLT 14:29AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	1h 53m Charlotte	CLT 16:22 → EWR 18:17AA 1330	4h 42m	92%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON