Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, MQ 3560 at 09:18, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3560 Envoy	AVL 09:18	MIA 11:35	11%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 22m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 09m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	AVL 15:39 → ATL 16:48DL 3099	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	6h 20m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:37 → ATL 13:45DL 3077	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 17:02 → MIA 19:01DL 719	6h 24m	99%	72%
American Details →	AVL 11:35 → ORD 12:39AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 14:01 → MIA 18:23AA 1431	6h 48m	93%	67%
American Details →	AVL 16:07 → LGA 18:14AA 4418 · flown by Republic	2h 29m New York	LGA 20:43 → MIA 23:21AA 845	7h 14m	97%	66%
American Details →	AVL 13:35 → CLT 14:29AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	1h 58m Charlotte	CLT 16:27 → MIA 18:31AA 3011	4h 56m	92%	61%
Delta Details →	AVL 11:53 → LGA 13:50DL 5025 · flown by Endeavor	1h 09m New York	LGA 14:59 → MIA 18:30DL 2300	6h 37m	86%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON