Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 55m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 18:37 → MSP 20:23DL 2654	7h 24m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:37 → ATL 13:45DL 3077	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	7h 38m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	6h 57m	96%	86%
United Details →	AVL 10:47 → ORD 11:51UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298	6h 26m	97%	82%
American Details →	AVL 11:35 → ORD 12:39AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	3h 25m Chicago	ORD 16:04 → MSP 18:03AA 2472	7h 28m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	AVL 11:53 → LGA 13:50DL 5025 · flown by Endeavor	1h 05m New York	LGA 14:55 → MSP 17:06DL 2349	6h 13m	85%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON