Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5833 AVL 06:55 → ORD 08:03 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4167 AVL 17:52 → ORD 18:57 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5833 SkyWest	AVL 06:55	ORD 08:03	11%	4%	1.9%	no record
UA 4652 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AVL 10:47	ORD 11:51	14%	5%	1.3%	93%
AA 3963 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AVL 11:35	ORD 12:39	16%	5%	1.2%	82%
YX 4737 Republic	AVL 18:28	ORD 19:41	16%	5%	1.3%	no record
G7 4167 GoJet	AVL 17:52	ORD 18:57	19%	6%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON