Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


PT 5809 Piedmont	AVL 18:36	PHL 20:30	11%	6%	1.8%	no record
PT 5853 Piedmont	AVL 12:06	PHL 14:03	12%	4%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	5h 22m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	AVL 15:39 → ATL 16:48DL 3099	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	5h 41m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:37 → ATL 13:45DL 3077	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	5h 35m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	5h 31m	94%	84%
United Details →	AVL 10:47 → ORD 11:51UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → PHL 17:52UA 2430	7h 05m	97%	83%
American Details →	AVL 11:35 → ORD 12:39AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	3h 23m Chicago	ORD 16:02 → PHL 19:31AA 1393	7h 56m	100%	82%
American Details →	AVL 13:35 → CLT 14:29AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 18:07 → PHL 20:06AA 423	6h 31m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON