Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2116 at 05:24 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13%.

Safest bet that day AA 2116 SFO 05:24 → DFW 10:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1184 SFO 13:59 → DAL 19:31 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2116 American	SFO 05:24	DFW 10:59	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 2305 American Flight history →	SFO 06:45	DFW 12:29	5%	2%	0.8%	83%
AA 1019 American Flight history →	SJC 06:01	DFW 11:46	5%	3%	0.7%	91%
WN 172 Southwest	OAK 08:09	DAL 13:36	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4033 Southwest	SJC 08:49	DAL 14:10	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 304 American Flight history →	SFO 08:09	DFW 13:40	9%	3%	0.8%	93%
UA 1062 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	DFW 14:25	10%	3%	0.5%	86%
AA 1188 American	SFO 09:09	DFW 14:49	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1336 United	SFO 16:38	DFW 22:11	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 557 American	SFO 17:09	DFW 22:43	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
F9 2930 Frontier	SFO 00:01	DFW 05:39	13%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 2834 American Flight history →	SJC 14:37	DFW 20:24	15%	6%	0.7%	73%
AA 1849 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	DFW 17:14	15%	5%	0.7%	45%
AA 2046 American Flight history →	SJC 12:03	DFW 17:45	16%	4%	0.7%	82%
UA 2842 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	DFW 16:08	16%	5%	0.5%	61%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	SFO 14:03	DFW 19:59	16%	6%	0.7%	50%
AA 3222 American	SFO 12:40	DFW 18:16	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1184 Southwest	SFO 13:59	DAL 19:31	19%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON