Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 32 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 405 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 405 SFO 07:00 → JFK 15:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2480 SFO 13:07 → EWR 21:39 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 405 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	JFK 15:43	6%	2%	1.1%	90%
AA 234 American Flight history →	SFO 06:15	JFK 15:02	6%	2%	2.2%	92%
AA 276 American Flight history →	SFO 21:20	JFK 06:00	7%	3%	1.4%	87%
UA 517 United	SFO 06:02	EWR 14:49	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2416 United Flight history →	SFO 00:01	EWR 08:46	8%	2%	1.0%	75%
UA 1149 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	EWR 15:49	8%	3%	1.0%	91%
DL 319 Delta Flight history →	SFO 22:34	JFK 06:57	9%	3%	0.9%	89%
B6 616 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 00:04	JFK 08:24	10%	2%	0.9%	85%
B6 116 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 06:00	JFK 14:38	11%	3%	1.8%	89%
AS 20 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:20	JFK 16:08	12%	3%	1.3%	80%
UA 698 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	EWR 05:51	12%	3%	1.1%	84%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:04	JFK 00:26	13%	4%	0.9%	77%
B6 16 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 20:25	JFK 05:07	13%	5%	0.9%	74%
DL 606 Delta	SFO 09:16	JFK 17:42	14%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 1141 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	EWR 07:00	15%	3%	1.1%	83%
B6 316 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 08:00	JFK 16:37	15%	4%	1.1%	87%
AA 148 American Flight history →	SFO 14:45	JFK 23:42	16%	6%	1.2%	73%
B6 216 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 13:15	JFK 22:02	16%	6%	0.9%	83%
UA 435 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	EWR 16:53	16%	4%	1.0%	83%
UA 2248 United Flight history →	SFO 15:00	EWR 23:50	17%	7%	1.0%	67%
DL 631 Delta	SFO 13:19	JFK 21:45	17%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 3938 United	SFO 08:07	EWR 16:57	18%	5%	1.1%	no record
B6 416 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 14:35	JFK 23:20	19%	6%	0.9%	80%
UA 2626 United Flight history →	SFO 16:20	EWR 01:10	20%	7%	0.9%	70%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:30	JFK 20:19	20%	10%	1.1%	76%
AS 42 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:38	JFK 22:26	21%	7%	1.0%	68%
AA 16 American Flight history →	SFO 10:15	JFK 19:04	23%	9%	1.6%	75%
AA 166 American Flight history →	SFO 12:10	JFK 21:00	23%	10%	1.4%	74%
UA 274 United Flight history →	SFO 11:15	EWR 20:10	24%	8%	1.0%	76%
UA 366 United Flight history →	SFO 13:45	EWR 22:26	25%	8%	1.0%	57%
UA 713 United Flight history →	SFO 10:20	EWR 19:03	28%	10%	1.0%	75%
UA 2480 United Flight history →	SFO 13:07	EWR 21:39	31%	10%	1.0%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 20:28 → JFK 00:05 +1DL 2692	7h 55m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 57m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	1h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	8h 00m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON