Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1947 SFO 00:05 → MCO 08:32 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1939 SFO 12:40 → MCO 21:14 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1947 United Flight history →	SFO 00:05	MCO 08:32	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 583 United Flight history →	SFO 08:45	MCO 17:21	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1939 United	SFO 12:40	MCO 21:14	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 00:13 → IAH 06:02UA 505	1h 18m Houston	IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245	7h 38m	95%	90%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168	1h 30m Houston	IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662	8h 04m	98%	87%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 35m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON