Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3576 at 22:26 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 7–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 3576 SJC 22:26 → BWI 06:31 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2386 SFO 14:18 → DCA 22:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3576 Southwest	SJC 22:26	BWI 06:31	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2837 United Flight history →	SFO 00:12	IAD 08:00	7%	2%	0.6%	67%
UA 2158 United	SFO 06:47	IAD 15:13	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 705 United Flight history →	SFO 21:22	IAD 05:32	8%	2%	0.6%	100%
UA 2664 United Flight history →	SFO 09:33	BWI 17:57	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2111 United Flight history →	SFO 23:16	IAD 07:40	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 1678 United Flight history →	SFO 08:20	DCA 16:47	13%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 599 United	SFO 08:04	IAD 16:18	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3547 Southwest	SFO 22:27	BWI 06:33	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	14%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	16%	5%	0.6%	76%
AS 8 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:39	DCA 17:59	16%	4%	0.7%	78%
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	17%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 755 United Flight history →	SFO 12:44	IAD 20:57	17%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	SFO 14:18	DCA 22:30	19%	6%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	98%	85%
United Details →	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	1h 15m Denver	DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924	7h 31m	91%	84%
Delta Details →	SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	7h 10m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON