Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2594 at 05:17 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 2594 BDL 05:17 → DCA 06:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5059 BDL 15:06 → DCA 16:44 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2594 American	BDL 05:17	DCA 06:52	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 5307 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BDL 09:34	DCA 11:16	9%	2%	0.8%	79%
OH 5079 PSA	BDL 12:11	DCA 13:52	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
OH 5058 PSA	BDL 19:28	DCA 21:07	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5059 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BDL 15:06	DCA 16:44	18%	5%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON