Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 364 BDL 08:02 → DEN 10:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2239 BDL 15:30 → DEN 17:58 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 364 United Flight history →	BDL 08:02	DEN 10:26	7%	2%	0.5%	94%
WN 275 Southwest	BDL 17:46	DEN 20:01	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2239 United Flight history →	BDL 15:30	DEN 17:58	12%	2%	0.6%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	6h 17m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	BDL 09:43 → DTW 11:35DL 2859	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	6h 02m	96%	89%
United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	50m Dulles	IAD 08:16 → DEN 10:15UA 797	6h 15m	95%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON