Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 09:43, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1361 United Flight history →	BDL 08:20	IAH 11:10	8%	2%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	6h 14m	99%	89%
United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	1h 14m Dulles	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	5h 59m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	6h 07m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 33m	99%	88%
United Details →	BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 10:46 → IAH 13:36UA 2767	8h 27m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BDL 13:50 → ATL 16:20DL 1082	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	8h 34m	99%	88%
United Details →	BDL 10:28 → IAD 12:04UA 1786	2h 58m Dulles	IAD 15:02 → IAH 17:26UA 2607	7h 58m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BDL 18:00 → ATL 20:47DL 2739	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	6h 57m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON