Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 412 at 05:47, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 412 American Flight history →	BDL 05:47	MIA 09:00	5%	2%	0.9%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	7h 02m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 57m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 58m	99%	90%
United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	1h 19m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 35m	99%	90%
American Details →	BDL 07:01 → CLT 09:01AA 3182	2h 01m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 10m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:32DL 1323	7h 27m	100%	84%
United Details →	BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 10:53 → MIA 15:09UA 1620	9h 00m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BDL 18:00 → ATL 20:47DL 2739	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 55m	98%	83%
American Details →	BDL 09:04 → CLT 11:13AA 2133	2h 22m Charlotte	CLT 13:35 → MIA 15:46AA 1198	6h 42m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON