Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2672 BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2627 BDL 16:55 → ORD 18:44 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2672 United Flight history →	BDL 06:09	ORD 07:54	6%	1%	0.6%	90%
AA 2163 American Flight history →	BDL 07:15	ORD 09:05	6%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 9789 American	BDL 23:32	ORD 01:20	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 378 United Flight history →	BDL 12:12	ORD 13:57	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1456 United	BDL 09:39	ORD 11:25	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3890 Envoy	BDL 18:31	ORD 20:22	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1408 American Flight history →	BDL 13:02	ORD 14:35	14%	4%	0.7%	43%
UA 2627 United Flight history →	BDL 16:55	ORD 18:44	15%	4%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON