Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


B6 1475 JetBlue Flight history →	BDL 14:04	SJU 18:06	25%	9%	0.7%	65%
F9 4420 Frontier Flight history →	BDL 21:26	SJU 01:38	35%	13%	1.0%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → SJU 13:59DL 1882	7h 59m	99%	90%
United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	1h 08m Dulles	IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021	6h 34m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946	8h 34m	100%	89%
American Details →	BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182	2h 55m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	8h 49m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BDL 13:50 → ATL 16:20DL 1082	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861	8h 40m	98%	87%
United Details →	BDL 08:20 → IAH 11:10UA 1361	3h 53m Houston	IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701	12h 18m	99%	86%
United Details →	BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 09:10 → SJU 14:56UA 1996	8h 47m	97%	85%
American Details →	BDL 05:47 → MIA 09:00AA 412	1h 48m Miami	MIA 10:48 → SJU 13:40AA 1976	7h 53m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON