tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2231 at 06:45, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2231 Southwest BDL 06:45 TPA 09:39 7% 1% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 34m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 5h 32m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587 5h 29m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BDL 08:05 → ATL 10:29DL 2233 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525 6h 08m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 3h 25m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 9h 03m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:20 → PHL 07:40AA 6111 · flown by Piedmont 1h 23m Philadelphia PHL 09:03 → TPA 11:57AA 1981 5h 37m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:00 → ATL 09:26DL 2554 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099 5h 39m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → BDL 06:01 → CLT 08:08AA 3182 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 10:35 → TPA 12:30AA 436 6h 29m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BDL 18:00 → ATL 20:47DL 2739 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560 6h 29m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BDL 10:26 → IAD 11:55UA 3993 · flown by Mesa 54m Dulles IAD 12:49 → TPA 15:15UA 2277 4h 49m 70% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON