tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1874 American BGR 13:45 CLT 16:26 9% 5% 0.7% no record
AA 3019 American BGR 17:17 CLT 19:56 13% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BGR 05:45 → PHL 07:40AA 6096 · flown by Piedmont 3h 02m Philadelphia PHL 10:42 → CLT 12:38AA 847 6h 53m 100% 94%
AmericanDetails → BGR 06:31 → ORD 08:18AA 3683 · flown by Envoy 3h 34m Chicago ORD 11:52 → CLT 14:59AA 3021 8h 28m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → BGR 11:16 → PHL 13:13AA 6123 · flown by Piedmont 2h 54m Philadelphia PHL 16:07 → CLT 17:46AA 3012 6h 30m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BGR 14:14 → LGA 16:04AA 4488 · flown by Republic 2h 11m New York LGA 18:15 → CLT 20:33AA 1942 6h 19m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → BGR 05:20 → LGA 07:00DL 5137 · flown by Endeavor 2h 00m New York LGA 09:00 → CLT 11:10DL 5051 · flown by Endeavor 5h 50m 94% 67%
DeltaDetails → BGR 16:22 → JFK 18:09DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor 2h 20m New York JFK 20:29 → CLT 23:03DL 5036 · flown by Endeavor 6h 40m 92% 59%
DeltaDetails → BGR 12:03 → LGA 13:45DL 5254 · flown by Endeavor 3h 21m New York LGA 17:06 → CLT 19:32DL 5047 · flown by Endeavor 7h 29m 98% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BGR 17:01 → LGA 18:44DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor 55m New York LGA 19:39 → CLT 21:37DL 5705 · flown by Republic 4h 36m 67% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON