Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3509 BGR 09:32 → ORD 11:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3548 BGR 17:52 → ORD 20:01 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3509 Republic	BGR 09:32	ORD 11:35	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3683 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BGR 06:27	ORD 08:14	5%	2%	0.9%	80%
OO 4702 SkyWest	BGR 16:52	ORD 19:00	9%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3548 Envoy	BGR 17:52	ORD 20:01	10%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON