Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5378 BGR 05:43 → PHL 07:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2142 BGR 16:14 → PHL 18:22 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5378 PSA	BGR 05:43	PHL 07:37	6%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 6123 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	BGR 10:55	PHL 12:54	7%	4%	1.0%	90%
OH 5134 PSA	BGR 18:51	PHL 20:43	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2142 American	BGR 16:14	PHL 18:22	12%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON