Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5253 BHM 08:13 → CLT 10:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 6350 BHM 17:21 → CLT 20:01 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5253 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 08:13	CLT 10:45	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
OH 5068 PSA	BHM 10:22	CLT 12:54	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5048 PSA	BHM 06:46	CLT 09:15	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
OO 6270 SkyWest	BHM 12:35	CLT 15:03	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
OH 5448 PSA	BHM 15:46	CLT 18:18	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6350 SkyWest	BHM 17:21	CLT 20:01	14%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON