Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 845 Southwest	BHM 07:47	DAL 09:37	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3761 Southwest	BHM 14:39	DAL 16:29	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	5h 33m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:20DL 2162	55m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441	4h 06m	95%	89%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 25m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	7h 12m	100%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON