Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3361 BHM 09:26 → DFW 11:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5316 BHM 16:32 → DFW 18:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3361 Envoy	BHM 09:26	DFW 11:31	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4186 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 05:30	DFW 07:28	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
MQ 3410 Envoy	BHM 07:32	DFW 09:43	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
OH 5530 PSA	BHM 12:09	DFW 14:16	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4210 Envoy	BHM 15:28	DFW 17:33	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5316 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 16:32	DFW 18:40	13%	5%	0.7%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON