tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1546 Southwest BHM 07:23 MCO 10:01 4% 1% 0.6% no record
F9 9174 Frontier BHM 09:55 MCO 12:48 13% 4% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:20DL 2162 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 45m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 5h 45m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372 6h 06m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → MCO 14:32DL 1576 4h 02m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 6h 45m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 20:15 → MCO 21:54DL 1735 6h 44m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162 5h 31m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27DL 3006 1h 08m Detroit DTW 10:35 → MCO 13:08DL 1747 5h 43m 95% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON