Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3423 at 06:05, 10%.

Nonstops that day


AA 3423 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 06:05	MIA 09:07	10%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 3909 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 15:48	MIA 19:03	33%	9%	1.2%	92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:20DL 2162	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 42m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 47m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:33DL 1323	5h 03m	99%	85%
American Details →	BHM 06:00 → PHL 09:20AA 5218 · flown by PSA	2h 14m Philadelphia	PHL 11:34 → MIA 14:34AA 1989	7h 34m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 28m	99%	84%
American Details →	BHM 08:13 → CLT 10:45AA 5253 · flown by PSA	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 13:35 → MIA 15:46AA 1198	6h 33m	97%	82%
American Details →	BHM 05:30 → DFW 07:28AA 4186 · flown by Envoy	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:04 → MIA 13:09AA 1219	6h 39m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:00 → LGA 09:29DL 4977 · flown by Endeavor	1h 46m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	7h 24m	95%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON