Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 5218 at 06:00, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5218 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 06:00	PHL 09:20	7%	3%	1.2%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:20DL 2162	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 42m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 09m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 32m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	5h 34m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	6h 34m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	6h 10m	97%	82%
American Details →	BHM 06:05 → MIA 09:07AA 3423 · flown by Envoy	2h 33m Miami	MIA 11:40 → PHL 14:36AA 1918	7h 31m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 30m	99%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BHM 15:48 → MIA 19:03AA 3909 · flown by Envoy	57m Miami	MIA 20:00 → PHL 23:03AA 3274	6h 15m	65%	52%
United Details →	BHM 13:22 → ORD 15:45UA 4168 · flown by GoJet	49m Chicago	ORD 16:34 → PHL 19:48UA 2825	5h 26m	55%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON