Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3256 at 11:42, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3256 Southwest	BHM 11:42	TPA 14:14	15%	3%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:20DL 2162	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227	3h 52m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	5h 05m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	4h 14m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:42 → ATL 12:46DL 3164	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759	5h 16m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	BHM 07:28 → ATL 09:34DL 1369	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	5h 45m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	6h 02m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:00 → LGA 09:37DL 4977 · flown by Endeavor	1h 03m New York	LGA 10:40 → TPA 13:28DL 2195	6h 28m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457	4h 44m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BHM 15:48 → MIA 19:03AA 3909 · flown by Envoy	47m Miami	MIA 19:50 → TPA 21:00AA 1921	4h 12m	0%	0%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON