tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1186 at 12:43, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1186 Southwest BNA 12:43 ABQ 14:42 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 06:23 → PHX 08:10WN 635 2h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:55 → ABQ 13:09WN 4325 7h 46m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → ABQ 10:12DL 1004 6h 02m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 6h 43m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:55 → ABQ 11:56AA 3586 · flown by Envoy 6h 55m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:18AA 2583 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:08 → ABQ 13:52AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 7h 48m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1716 3h 13m Denver DEN 13:33 → ABQ 14:59UA 1594 7h 45m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 12:43 → DAL 14:35WN 485 1h 47m Dallas DAL 16:22 → ABQ 17:17WN 3776 5h 34m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → BNA 05:09 → ORD 07:04AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest 4h 00m Chicago ORD 11:04 → ABQ 13:18AA 2068 9h 09m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON