Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 2–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1001 BNA 06:11 → AUS 08:23 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3945 BNA 18:48 → AUS 21:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1001 Southwest	BNA 06:11	AUS 08:23	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1130 Southwest	BNA 09:02	AUS 11:12	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4146 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 07:05	AUS 09:31	6%	3%	0.5%	87%
WN 450 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:50	AUS 23:00	7%	2%	0.5%	83%
WN 4728 Southwest	BNA 12:27	AUS 14:38	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4778 Southwest	BNA 16:17	AUS 18:28	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 4116 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 11:19	AUS 13:39	8%	3%	0.5%	86%
DL 3945 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 18:48	AUS 21:19	10%	3%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON